Prediction-markets is a topic tracked in our intelligence system with 5 linked articles.
Google engineer Michele Spagnuolo is charged with insider trading for $1.2M in profits on Polymarket using confidential Google data, with DOJ and CFTC involvement.
Google employee Michele Spagnuolo allegedly used confidential internal data to win about $1.2 million on Polymarket bets and faces charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering; he was arrested in New York and released on a $2.25 million bond.
A Google security engineer was arrested for insider trading on Polymarket using confidential internal data, with about $1.2 million in gains, triggering federal charges and highlighting growing regulatory scrutiny on prediction markets.
Minnesota becomes the first state to ban prediction markets.
The CFTC plans to use AI to detect insider trading on Polymarket and other prediction markets, per a WIRED interview with CFTC chair Michael Selig.
The article analyzes Kalshi and Polymarket data, showing billions in monthly volume but limited usefulness for decision-making; most activity is in entertainment/sports bets, with only a subset of longer-running markets showing volume translating into accuracy, and AI/chatbot disruption could reshape how this information is distributed.
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