Prediction-markets is a topic tracked in our intelligence system with 5 linked articles.
DefenseScoop obtained an Oct. 20 memo from Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warning troops against using military information for gambling or prediction-market bets — a bare headline stub with policy relevance but no data or analysis.
Utah's attorney general has sued Kalshi and its Susquehanna-affiliated market-making firms, seeking to claw back alleged gambling profits and enjoin Kalshi's sports, politics, and culture event contracts.
Crypto.com and prediction-market operator Novig have sued Missouri over cease-and-desist orders targeting their sports event contracts, while fellow targets Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Underdog have not (yet) filed suits, per court records.
Kalshi's CEO is publicly defending prediction markets against mounting insider-trading concerns, arguing that the platforms' transparent market structure actually makes it easier to detect bad actors than traditional markets.
Over $600 million in Polymarket trades occurred on already-decided Ethiopia and Romania election contracts, with an expert calling it obvious volume manipulation — a red flag for anyone using platform volume metrics in crypto/web3 due diligence.
Rep. Jim Himes, ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, says polling and prediction markets point to a large Democratic midterm wave that could accelerate US military aid to Ukraine.
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